1. What Is Demography?
Demography is the study of the human population, its size, structure, composition, and how it changes over time.
The human population differs in several ways, including:
- Age: Children, adults, and elderly people.
- Gender: The distribution of males and females.
- Education: Different levels of educational attainment.
- Occupation: Different types of work performed by people.
- Religion: Different religious groups.
- Population size: The total number of people living in a particular region.
Population characteristics change over time because of births, deaths, and the movement of people within and across countries.
Components of Demography
- Size: The total number of people in a population.
- Structure and composition: The characteristics of people, such as age, gender, education, and occupation.
- Pattern and trend: The way population characteristics change over time.
Importance of Demography
Demography helps governments and businesses understand the needs of people and use resources effectively.
- Planning infrastructure: Governments can plan schools, hospitals, roads, and housing according to population needs.
- Providing public services: Areas with many children need more schools, while areas with a larger elderly population require more healthcare facilities.
- Generating employment: A large working-age population creates a need for more employment opportunities.
- Managing resources: Population information helps authorities allocate water, energy, and other resources.
- Understanding customers: Businesses study people’s age, gender, and income to develop products that meet their needs.
Census
A census is the process of collecting, compiling, analysing, and distributing demographic, economic, and social information about all people in a country or a clearly defined part of it at a particular time.
In India, the census is generally conducted every 10 years. It collects information such as:
- Age and gender
- Marital status
- Educational level
- Languages spoken
- Religion
- Family size
- Occupation and employment status
- Income levels
The census provides an official count of the population and helps understand its characteristics.
2. Population at a Glance
Population varies across countries and regions. Some countries have very large populations, while others have relatively small populations.
India’s Population
- In 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country.
- Indians constitute around 17% of the world’s population.
- India’s population has increased considerably over time.
Growth of World Population
The world population grew from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 8.2 billion in 2025.
According to the projections presented in the chapter:
- World population is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050.
- It is projected to peak at approximately 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.
- After reaching its peak, the population is expected to gradually decline as birth rates fall.
Improved healthcare has enabled people to live longer and has contributed significantly to population growth.
Population Trends Across Countries
Population growth does not occur at the same rate everywhere.
- China, Japan, and Italy: These countries are experiencing shrinking populations.
- India: Its population is still growing.
- Nigeria and Ethiopia: These African countries continue to experience rapid population growth.
Reasons for Rapid Population Growth After the 1950s
Several developments contributed to the rapid growth of the world population:
- Medical advancements, including antibiotics and vaccines.
- Improved water and sanitation facilities.
- A decline in child deaths caused by diseases such as malaria and diarrhoea.
- Improvements in economic prosperity that benefited larger sections of the population.
- Better healthcare, which increased life expectancy.
Population is distributed unevenly across the world’s regions, with Asia having the largest population among the regions shown in the chapter.
3. What Determines the Population of a Country?
The population of a country changes gradually over time because of three major processes:
- Births
- Deaths
- Migration
Four important demographic indicators help us understand these changes.
A. Birth Rate
The birth rate measures the number of live births in a population during a specified period, usually expressed as the number of live births per 1,000 people in one year.
- A high birth rate means that many babies are being born relative to the population.
- A low birth rate means that fewer babies are being born.
- A high birth rate can contribute to faster population growth.
- A low birth rate can slow population growth and may eventually contribute to a shrinking population.
B. Fertility Rate
The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman is likely to have during her lifetime.
The replacement level fertility rate is approximately 2.1 children per woman.
It is called the replacement level because it represents the number of children needed, on average, to replace the parents in the population.
- Above 2.1: The population is likely to grow.
- Around 2.1: The population may remain relatively stable.
- Below 2.1: The population may shrink over time.
The replacement level is not exactly 2 because not every child survives to reproductive age, and the number of births must account for population replacement.
Difference Between Birth Rate and Fertility Rate
| Birth Rate | Fertility Rate |
|---|---|
| Measures the number of live births per 1,000 people in a year. | Measures the average number of children a woman is likely to have during her lifetime. |
| Expressed per 1,000 people annually. | Expressed as children per woman. |
| Helps indicate the pace of population growth. | Helps indicate future population growth or decline. |
Relationship Between Birth Rate and Fertility Rate
Birth and fertility rates are closely related.
When women have fewer children on average, the fertility rate falls. This usually leads to a decline in the birth rate, which slows population growth.
If fertility remains low for a long time, a country’s population may stop growing or begin to shrink.
C. China’s One-Child Policy
In the 1970s, the Chinese government was concerned that rapid population growth could cause shortages of food, jobs, and housing.
- In 1979, China introduced the One-Child Policy, which allowed most families to have only one child.
- Families who violated the rule faced penalties such as fines or job loss.
- China’s fertility rate declined from 7.5 in 1963 to 1 in 2025.
- China’s population peaked at 1.43 billion in 2022 and subsequently began to shrink.
- Its population is projected to fall to 1.31 billion by 2050.
- China ended the One-Child Policy in 2015 and now allows families to have up to three children.
The policy had lasting effects on families and society. A generation of children grew up without siblings, affecting their family and kinship networks.
As the population ages, fewer young workers are available to work in farms, factories, and offices. This can slow economic growth.
D. Population Control Efforts in India
India also promoted population control through campaigns such as “Hum do humare do,” which began in 1952 and emphasised having no more than two children.
According to the chapter:
- India’s fertility rate declined from 5.7 in 1950 to 1.9 in 2025.
- Many countries, including South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, China, Italy, Spain, and France, have experienced low fertility rates.
Factors Responsible for Falling Fertility and Birth Rates
1. Improvement in education
Greater access to quality education, especially for girls, has contributed to declining fertility rates.
2. Women’s participation in employment
As more women receive formal education and work in formal jobs, they are more likely to marry later and have fewer children.
3. Rapid urbanisation
The cost of living is high in many cities. As a result, families may prefer to have fewer children.
These factors have contributed to smaller families and slower population growth.
4. Death Rate or Mortality Rate
The death rate, also called the mortality rate, is the number of deaths in a population during a year, generally expressed as deaths per 1,000 people.
A lower mortality rate generally indicates better healthcare and nutrition.
Child Mortality
Child mortality refers to the number of deaths of children below five years of age per 1,000 live births. It is an important indicator of child survival and overall child health.
Improvements in India
The chapter highlights significant improvements in India’s health indicators:
- Child mortality declined from 271 per 1,000 live births in 1950 to 28 in 2023.
- Life expectancy at birth increased from approximately 30 years at independence to 70 years in 2024.
Life Expectancy
Life expectancy is the average number of years a newborn is expected to live if the health, safety, and living conditions of the population remain similar to those prevailing at the time.
For example, a life expectancy of 70 years means that a newborn is expected to live for approximately 70 years on average. It does not mean that every individual will live to exactly that age.
Improved healthcare, better nutrition, and better living conditions contribute to increased life expectancy.
5. Migration
Migration refers to the movement of people from one place to another, within or outside a country, to settle temporarily or permanently in a new location.
Reasons for Migration
People migrate for various reasons, including:
- Better employment opportunities.
- Access to education.
- Natural disasters.
- Political instability.
- Better living opportunities.
Effects of Migration
Migration can change the population of both the place people move to and the place they leave.
Effects on receiving areas:
- The population increases as migrants arrive.
- More housing and transportation may be needed.
- Pressure on water, air, and land resources may increase.
- Public services may experience additional demand.
Cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru have experienced significant population growth due to migration.
Effects on areas people leave:
When many young people migrate from villages or smaller towns to cities, the population and availability of young workers in their native areas may change.
Important Demographic Terms
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Birth rate | Number of live births per 1,000 people in a year. |
| Fertility rate | Average number of children a woman is likely to have during her lifetime. |
| Mortality rate | Number of deaths per 1,000 people in a year. |
| Child mortality | Deaths of children under five years per 1,000 live births. |
| Migration | Movement of people from one place to another. |
| Life expectancy | Average number of years a newborn is expected to live under prevailing conditions. |
6. How Do Countries Experience Population Change?
A country’s population structure changes over time because of changes in birth rates, death rates, healthcare, education, economic development, and women’s participation in decision-making.
This process is known as demographic transition.
Demographic transition describes how a population moves through different stages, from high birth and death rates towards low birth and death rates.
The chapter explains three stages of demographic transition.
Stage 1: High Birth Rate and High Death Rate
Characteristics:
- Both birth rates and death rates are high.
- Population growth is very slow or stagnant.
- Poor healthcare and low literacy contribute to these conditions.
Example: India experienced this stage during 1901–1921.
Stage 2: Falling Death Rate but High Birth Rate
Characteristics:
- Death rates decline because of improved healthcare.
- Birth rates remain high.
- The difference between birth and death rates becomes large.
- Population grows rapidly.
Example: India’s population grew rapidly after 1951.
Stage 3: Low Death Rate and Falling Birth Rate
Characteristics:
- Death rates remain low.
- Birth rates begin to decline.
- Urbanisation, higher incomes, education, and women’s participation in the workforce contribute to lower birth rates.
- Population growth slows down.
If fertility rates fall significantly and births become very low, the population may begin to shrink.
Examples: Italy, Japan, and South Korea are experiencing population ageing and shrinking populations.
India’s fertility rate began declining after the mid-1980s and is now below the replacement level, according to the chapter.
Comparison of the Three Stages
| Feature | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birth rate | High | High | Falling |
| Death rate | High | Falling | Low |
| Population growth | Very slow or stagnant | Rapid | Slow or may become negative |
| Main characteristics | Poor healthcare and low literacy | Better healthcare reduces deaths | Education, urbanisation, higher incomes, and fewer births |
7. India’s Population: Composition and Trends
India has a large and diverse population distributed across its states.
Apart from geographical distribution, population can be studied through characteristics such as:
- Age
- Gender
- Occupation
- Education
These characteristics are known as the structure or composition of the population.
Distribution of Population Across Indian States
The chapter’s state-wise chart shows the following approximate shares of India’s population:
| State | Share of population |
|---|---|
| Uttar Pradesh | 16% |
| Maharashtra | 9% |
| Bihar | 9% |
| West Bengal | 8% |
| Madhya Pradesh | 6% |
| Tamil Nadu | 6% |
| Rajasthan | 6% |
| Karnataka | 5% |
| Gujarat | 5% |
| Andhra Pradesh | 4% |
The chart also includes other states and Union Territories, many of which account for smaller shares of the total population.
These figures show that India’s population is not distributed equally across its states.
8. Sex Ratio in India
The sex ratio is the number of females per 1,000 males in a population.
It is an important demographic indicator used to understand gender balance and reflects the socio-economic and cultural conditions of a country.
India’s Sex Ratio
According to the chapter:
- In 2001, India’s sex ratio was 933 females per 1,000 males.
- In 2011, it improved to 943 females per 1,000 males.
- Women constituted 48.5% of India’s total population in 2011.
Importance of a Balanced Sex Ratio
A balanced sex ratio is important for:
- Equitable development.
- Social stability.
- Sustainable population growth.
- Understanding gender balance in society.
The chapter also notes that some states and Union Territories, including Kerala, Puducherry, and Tamil Nadu, had sex ratios above or close to 1,000 females per 1,000 males.
9. Population Structure Diagram or Population Pyramid
A population structure diagram, commonly called a population pyramid, is a graph that shows the number of people in different age groups and by gender.
It helps us understand the composition of a population and how that population is changing over time.
Parts of a Population Pyramid
- Bottom: Represents young people, including children and teenagers.
- Middle: Represents adults, including the working-age population.
- Top: Represents elderly people.
What Different Shapes Indicate
1. Wide base
- Indicates that many children are being born.
- Shows a young and growing population.
- Examples given in the chapter include India and Nigeria.
2. Wide middle
- Indicates a large proportion of working-age adults.
- Represents a population in which working adults form the largest group.
3. Wide top
- Indicates a relatively large elderly population.
- Shows an ageing population.
- Japan is an example mentioned in the chapter.
A population pyramid generally looks like a triangle when the population has many young people at the bottom and fewer older people at the top.
Changes in India’s Population Pyramid
India’s population pyramid has changed considerably over time.
India in the 1950s
- The pyramid had a narrow triangular shape.
- There were many children and young people.
- The number of elderly people was relatively small.
- Birth rates were high because families had many children.
- Life expectancy was approximately 30–35 years because healthcare and nutrition were less developed.
India in recent years
- The pyramid has become more bell-shaped than triangular.
- The base has narrowed because families are having fewer children.
- The middle has widened, indicating a large working-age population.
- The top is gradually widening because people are living longer.
These changes show that India is moving from a young, rapidly growing population towards a more balanced population structure. In the future, India may gradually experience greater population ageing, as seen in Japan and China.
10. India’s Demographic Dividend — A Limited Window of Opportunity
India has a large young population, which creates an opportunity for economic growth.
Youth Bulge
A youth bulge refers to a large proportion of young people in the population. The chapter describes this group as people aged 16–30 years.
This phenomenon is common in countries at Stage 2 of demographic transition.
According to the chapter:
- Around 27% of India’s population is below 15 years of age.
- Nearly 65% belongs to the working-age group of 15–59 years.
Median Age in Selected Countries
The median age divides a population into two equal groups: half the population is younger than the median age and half is older.
| Country | Median age |
|---|---|
| India | 28 years |
| Japan | 50 years |
| Italy | 48 years |
| Germany | 47 years |
| China | 40 years |
| USA | 39 years |
These figures show that India’s population is younger than the populations of the other countries listed.
What Is Demographic Dividend?
Demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential that arises when a country has a relatively large and productive working-age population.
A large working-age population can benefit a country in several ways:
- Increased economic activity: Young people can work in factories, offices, and farms or establish businesses.
- Higher productivity: More people participating in economic activities can increase the production of goods and services.
- Greater tax revenue: Working people earn money and pay taxes.
- Public development: The government can use tax revenue to build schools, hospitals, roads, and parks.
- Economic growth: A productive working-age population can help expand the economy.
How Can India Benefit from Its Demographic Dividend?
India needs to invest in:
- Quality education: To provide people with the knowledge required for productive work.
- Skill development: To prepare young people for different occupations.
- Employment opportunities: To help the working-age population participate in economic activities.
- Healthcare: To support a healthy and productive population.
- Women’s participation in employment: To enable more women to contribute to the economy.
- Childcare facilities: To help women balance employment and household responsibilities.
The demographic dividend is a limited opportunity because the proportion of young people is expected to decrease in the coming decades.
According to the chapter, India’s population of children under five peaked in 2007, and the population below 15 peaked in 2011. Both groups have subsequently begun to decline.
After 2050, India is expected to begin transitioning towards an older population.
11. Population Ageing and Its Challenges
Population ageing refers to a change in population structure in which the proportion of elderly people increases.
As healthcare, nutrition, and living conditions improve, people live longer. At the same time, falling birth rates reduce the proportion of children and young people in the population.
Ageing Population in India
Population ageing is not occurring at the same rate across all Indian states.
The chapter highlights that:
- Kerala and Tamil Nadu are experiencing significant population ageing.
- Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have relatively younger population structures.
Challenges of an Ageing Population
1. Increased healthcare needs
Older people generally require more healthcare facilities and support.
2. Fewer working-age people
As more people retire, fewer young workers may be available to replace them.
3. Slower economic growth
A decline in the working population can reduce economic activity and make it harder to maintain productivity.
4. Pressure on pension systems
Governments may face greater challenges in providing pensions and other services as the number of elderly people increases.
5. Fewer young taxpayers
A smaller working-age population may mean fewer people paying taxes to support public services.
Contributions of Older People to Society
Although older people may withdraw from economic activities after retirement, they continue to contribute to families and society.
- They share their knowledge and wisdom.
- They guide younger family members.
- They help preserve cultural traditions.
- They pass on stories, rituals, and experiences.
- They contribute knowledge that may not be available in books.
Thus, older people continue to play important social and cultural roles.
12. How Can Countries Prepare for Demographic Transition?
Countries need to prepare for changes in their population structure. The challenges differ between developed and developing countries.
A. Measures in Developed Countries
Developed countries need to support ageing populations while maintaining productivity and innovation.
The chapter gives Japan as an example of a country responding to population ageing.
Measures include:
- Raising the retirement age.
- Using technology and automation to compensate for labour shortages.
- Establishing community centres.
- Using robots and artificial intelligence assistants to help care for older adults.
These measures can help countries manage the challenges associated with an increasing elderly population.
B. Measures in Developing Countries
Developing countries need to make the best use of their large working-age populations.
Important measures include:
- Investing in quality education.
- Providing skill development.
- Improving healthcare.
- Creating opportunities for productive employment.
- Supporting women’s participation in the workforce.
- Providing childcare infrastructure, including daycare centres.
The Double Burden on Women
As more women enter formal employment, they may face a double burden of managing both job responsibilities and household duties.
The following factors can make participation in the workforce difficult:
- Lack of childcare facilities.
- Reduced support from joint family systems.
- Inflexible working hours.
- The responsibility of managing household duties alongside employment.
Supportive family systems, flexible working arrangements, and daycare centres can help women participate in employment and contribute to economic growth.
The chapter also notes that policies introduced in many countries to revive fertility rates have generally not been very successful so far.
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